if your starting hand is paired
I’m calculating the chance of getting a set on the flop and it’s 11.76%-chance of quads, which I think is 0.24%…but I can’t just use an online calculator because I’m writing a paper on probability(w/poker included) and I need to explain HOW I got it.
Thanks
Tags: Flop, Getting, Holdem, Online Calculator, Probability, Probability Poker, quads, Texas, Texas Holdem, Writing A Paper, Writing Paper
ODDS: 407.33 to 1. CHANCES: 1 in 408.33. PERCENT: 0.245%.
MATH: (2/50)*(1/49)*(48/48) + (48/50)*(2/49)*(1/48) + (2/50)*(48/49)*(1/48)
There are 3 different board combinations that can give you quads. Either the 1st and 2nd flop cards match your pocket pair, the 2nd and 3rd flop cards hit your pocket pair, or the 1st and 3rd cards hit your pocket pair. And in all 3 scenarios the other card will always NOT match your pocket pair. What we will do here is calculate the odds of all 3 scenarios and add them together. Scenario #1. The odds of the 1st flop card hitting your pocket pair is 2 out of 50. The odds of the second flop card hitting your pair is 1 out of 49. The odds that the third one will not hit your pair are 48 out of 48. That is how we arrive at the first part of the equation – (2/50)*(1/49)*(48/48). The “48/48″ comes out to 1 and can be droppeod from the equation. The second and third scenarios will follow the logic of the first
I think poker is over rated